Scenario-Based CO2 Cost Analysis

As part of the acquisition consulting for the “Marienhöfe” residential neighborhood in southern Berlin, a scenario-based analysis of potential CO₂ costs was conducted.

The neighborhood comprises more than ten buildings and is to be supplied with waste heat from a neighboring data center via a newly constructed heating pipeline. The first buildings are scheduled to become operational in October 2027.

Since the timeline for completing the approximately 2.5-kilometer-long heat pipeline is tight, an assessment was conducted to determine whether an interim supply might be necessary during the transition period from 2027 to 2029. This interim supply would be based on a fossil fuel mix consisting of 35 percent natural gas and 65 percent biomethane in the scenario under consideration. The resulting CO₂ emissions are subject to the European Emissions Trading System 2 (EU-ETS 2, as of 07/25), meaning the costs are borne entirely by the owner.

The assessment drew on three consumption scenarios based on GEG as well as various market price forecasts, including those from BloombergNEF. The results were incorporated into the purchase agreement negotiations and economic planning. At the same time, they confirm the importance of completing the waste heat pipeline on schedule, since regular operations will rely exclusively on renewable energy from the data center, thereby incurring no CO₂ costs for the owner under the ETS-II system.